Donald J Trump has made history with taking up a second term in office and being non – consecutive president to do so after almost 130 years. Let’s see how does it effects us as Indians
Fiscal Policy :
Our internal economics and fiscal deficit largely depends on the oil pricing and the amount of IT exports that fuels dollars into our system.
Trump Modi Bonhomie:
It has been said that Modi has a better chemistry with Trump in comparison to Biden, Well tell me a world leader except china and Pakistan where Modi’s hug isn’t prominent(nothing changes there). Moreover Trump’s “America First” rhetoric would/might hamper visas and tariffs on any kind of imports.
The major arguable factor is “China” where Trump has clearly mentioned a cut in Chinese goods and also advocated humongous tarrifs. The major stock markets around the world hailed(shot up) Trump’s re-election with an exception of the China and Hong Kong markets that fell more than 2%. So the case is more of “COMPETITOR’S LOSS IS OUR GAIN”.
- The US India policy would largely remain unchanged as the US is eying china +1 bolster for its imports and supply chain.
- There would be tariffs hike on imports to help US industry. A china specific hike would be a boost for India
- Tariffs would be a double edged sword with Trump asking to lower it in US export to India (Harley Davidson case, Where Trump personally wanted the import duty for Harley to be cut off substantially, Later honoured by India.
- Production shift from china to India would be a major contributor. Though it is already happening gradually. Trump might help it speed up, But there are other south asians eying to eat the pie like Vietnam and Indonesia.
- A hard hand on China would also mean fresh flow of FDI(foreign direct investment) to India.
- Our dollar remissions might take a daint if the H1 visa issuance faces scrutiny. The last Trump’s administration has had similar examples.
I have intentionally spared Pakistan in this equation as it would mean a lot on the economic scenario, It would be more of a geo-political impact not resulting largely in the economy.
